Bitcoin is already at $61,000. What's happening: here are two scenarios for the crypto market
This morning, Bitcoin briefly dropped to levels around $61K, however, unlike ETH and SOL, it did not renew its local lows.
This morning, Bitcoin briefly dropped to levels around $61K, however, unlike ETH and SOL, it did not renew its local lows.
At least for now.
The fall from $82K to $61K reminds many market participants of the February decline phase — a sharp correction without clear rebounds and with a noticeable shortage of liquidity for buying.
At the same time, a key question remains: who exactly is putting pressure on the market with sales right now. There are suggestions in the community that part of the movement may be related to large players like Strategy and its liquidity management policies.
In particular, the market is paying attention to the company’s recent transactions and expects a more detailed report on Monday. The company did indeed report the sale of 32 BTC worth about $2.5 million, which was the first such move since 2022. At the same time, the volume of these transactions seems insufficient to explain the scale of the current market movement on its own.
Two market scenarios: technical and «technological»
Currently, two main interpretations of the situation have emerged in the crypto community.
The first is more «classical.» The market is in the area of a local range bottom, and the current correction is part of a larger redistribution cycle. In this scenario, the logic is simple: a gradual DCA accumulator of BTC looks justified, as the market is already close to the lower limit of the range, but still allows a move into the $58K–$55K zone.
The second is more aggressive and pessimistic. It is based on the assumption that the correction may not be an isolated story for crypto, but part of a broader decline in risk assets. If the tech sector and AI stocks continue to correct, it could trigger a domino effect.
This scenario also includes quite radical assessments: if overheated tech stocks really go into a deep correction by summer, the crypto market may remain under pressure until August–September.
And if the scenario of a deeper decline in indices is implemented, the consequences for BTC and even more so for altcoins could be much more painful.
Altcoins: Selectivity instead of «everything is growing»
Despite the volatility, part of the market continues to highlight separate narratives — AI, privacy, RWA, and revenue tokens.
Among the assets that remain in the focus of attention: VVV, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, LIT, ONDO. The logic is simple: even in the phase of a general correction, the market behaves unevenly, and capital continues to move into individual stories, and not into the «market as a whole.»
So what to do?
In the classical interpretation of the current market phase, the answer seems pragmatic: do not try to guess the bottom, but work through DCA. Partial entry into the spot in the current zone is considered a working strategy, especially considering that the market is already at the bottom of the local range. At the same time, the risk of a further decline to $58K–$55K remains on the table, which is why a strategy of gradual position acquisition looks more logical than a one-time entry.
Conclusion
The market is currently in a phase of heightened uncertainty, where two narratives coexist: technical DCA optimism and macro pessimism related to risk assets in general. In such conditions, the key is not trying to predict the movement, but managing risk and position size. And for those who are not in the spot — as always, it is a little easier to watch the game from the sidelines.
