Russia is not only interested in occupying Donbass - its strategic plan is the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood and the capture of the Left Bank. At the same time, the fighting will end not with peaceful concessions, but with the economic collapse of the aggressor and the fixation of the front according to the "Korean scenario".
Russia is not only interested in occupying Donbass - its strategic plan is the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood and the capture of the Left Bank. At the same time, the fighting will end not with peaceful concessions, but with the economic collapse of the aggressor and the fixation of the front according to the "Korean scenario".
This was stated in an interview with dev.ua by the chairman of the supervisory board of the Brave1 defense cluster and former head of the Ministry of Digital Affairs Oleksandr Bornyakov.
According to him, the hope that the concession of territories in the east can stop the Kremlin is a dangerous illusion.
"This is my personal belief: whoever says 'let's give them something and they'll calm down' - no, they won't calm down. They will calm down only when they stand at the western border, Kyiv becomes a completely Russian city, and the entire opposition is cut out or imprisoned. They need to go through Donbas not for the sake of the cities, but to go beyond the waste dumps to the plain. Then they plan to approach the Dnieper, Kharkiv with cannon artillery, go to Sumy and throw the Ukrainian forces back to the left bank," Bornyakov emphasized.
The former official admitted that he had previously predicted the depletion of the enemy's resources much earlier, but geopolitical factors in the Middle East changed the situation in Moscow's favor.
"They were very lucky with the events surrounding Iran: the conflict raised oil prices, and this gave the Kremlin financial breathing space. We found ourselves hostage to external factors. If nothing changes, Russia can hold out for about another year due to oil profits. If there are changes in the US or in the markets, it will be much less," says the chairman of the supervisory board of Brave1.
Bornyakov believes that the war will not end with a classic treaty or the voluntary return of territories by the next Russian leadership, since the captured regions are already enshrined in the Russian Constitution.
"It will end when they collapse economically and simply stop. I don't believe they will run back even under a new president. It seems to me that we will somehow get stuck somewhere - there will be a freeze similar to the Korean scenario," he noted.
Bornyakov called the only reliable safeguard against the implementation of Russian plans a technological asymmetric response within the framework of the Brave1 operation — the saturation of the front line with autonomous drones, artificial intelligence, and ground robots, which should make the advance of enemy infantry and equipment physically impossible even by one kilometer.
