In November 2025, the Polymarket prediction market had about 100 active bets on the Russian-Ukrainian war, such as whether the Russians would capture Pokrovsk by the end of the year or when a ceasefire would occur.
In November 2025, the Polymarket prediction market had about 100 active bets on the Russian-Ukrainian war, such as whether the Russians would capture Pokrovsk by the end of the year or when a ceasefire would occur.
Forbes Ukraine writes about this. According to the publication, in November there were 97 active bets for a total of $96.8 million. The largest number of bets ($27 million) was made on a bet on a ceasefire by the end of 2025, which currently has a 5% probability.
Polymarket is a Manhattan-based predictions marketplace launched in 2020 by Shane Coplan. It accepts bets on a variety of events, from political races to economic indicators to even weather conditions. Participants can deposit USDC cryptocurrency through the platform and Polygon blockchain network and trade stocks that correspond to the probability of certain future outcomes.
On Polymarket, bets are placed not between the service and the user, but between the players themselves. And the probability of an event is determined not by the bookmaker’s analysts, but by the price at which users are willing to buy or sell a stock.
Among the bets on the Russian-Ukrainian war, there are bets on whether the occupiers will be able to capture Ukrainian cities by a certain date. Currently, the three largest bets are on the occupation of Kostyantynivka (35% by the end of 2025 and 76% by the end of 2026), Pokrovs’ka (80% by the end of the year), and Myrnograd (91% by the end of the year).
In the last two pairs, the results are decided by the combat map from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This gives users clear criteria, but the result depends on the interpretation of the maps and how quickly they are updated.
«At the same time, foreign game enthusiasts are more outraged by data manipulation by map sources, which affects the results of such markets.
«They accuse ISW of allegedly intentionally introducing a fictitious Russian promotion on the map an hour before the market resolution and are asking for the map sources to be changed,» noted Ukrainian volunteer, blogger, and activist Serhiy Sternenko.
At the end of October, former CEO of Reface, and now co-founder and COO of the Limitless platform, Roman Mogilny, announced that his new company had raised a seed round of $10 million in investment.
Limitless is creating an event betting platform that allows users to place bets against each other, which distinguishes it from traditional bookmakers. It offers financial predictions, such as on the exchange rates of popular cryptocurrencies or egg prices, as well as contracts for sports and political events. It currently does not offer predictions on the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Earlier, Brian Armstrong, CEO of crypto exchange Coinbase, made an interesting statement during a conference call, listing a number of keywords. In this way, he wanted to show the unreliability of prediction services.
