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Наталя ХандусенкоGadgets
25 September 2026, 15:11
2026-09-25
Due to the boom in artificial intelligence, 230 million budget smartphones per year may disappear from the market
The development of artificial intelligence and the massive construction of data centers have provoked an acute shortage of components, which could deal a heavy blow to the affordable gadget segment. According to a new forecast from the analytical agency Counterpoint Research, global shipments of smartphones costing up to $200 will decrease by about 40%. This means that by the end of the decade, more than 230 million budget devices will disappear from the market every year. What can consumers expect?
The development of artificial intelligence and the massive construction of data centers have provoked an acute shortage of components, which could deal a heavy blow to the affordable gadget segment. According to a new forecast from the analytical agency Counterpoint Research, global shipments of smartphones costing up to $200 will decrease by about 40%. This means that by the end of the decade, more than 230 million budget devices will disappear from the market every year. What can consumers expect?
Why won't gadgets get cheaper anymore?
The main reason for the decline is the rapid increase in the cost of semiconductor products, in particular, random access memory (DRAM) and non-volatile memory (NAND). Chip manufacturers are massively reorienting their capacities to produce high-yield memory for AI accelerators and server equipment. This has created a shortage in the consumer electronics market, writes The Register.
In addition, stricter basic requirements are being imposed on smartphone specifications, which increases their cost. In low-cost smartphones, components take up the lion's share of the price, so manufacturers can no longer compensate for the increase in costs with their own margins.
“The smartphone market will recover in terms of volume, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous volume,” said Yan Wang, a senior analyst at Counterpoint. “The main potential is shifting towards more expensive mass models and the premium segment. However, higher price categories will not be able to fully compensate for the lost sales of ultra-budget devices.”
Alternatives for buyers and changing market forces
The decline in the number of affordable smartphones could make it harder for low-income people, especially in developing countries, to access mobile internet. Buyers will be forced to buy more expensive devices, use their existing smartphones longer, and turn to the used and refurbished market.
By the end of the decade, the main battle between brands is expected to unfold in the mid-range segment. As device specifications become similar, manufacturers will compete on design, camera quality, battery life, and durability.
Analysts see Apple, Samsung and Huawei as the main beneficiaries of this transformation. Samsung has a broad portfolio across all price ranges, Apple remains the revenue leader in the premium segment, and Huawei is strengthening its position with flagship and flexible smartphones.
Memory shortage hits the entire electronics market
The AI arms race has also affected other categories of computing. A fourfold increase in memory prices has pushed PC prices to record highs.
The low-cost laptop segment is also experiencing similar problems: according to forecasts by research company Omdia, shipments of ChromeOS devices (Chromebooks) will decrease by 27.6%. For comparison, the decline in shipments of Windows PCs is estimated at 12.1%, and Mac computers — only 4.8%.
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