Наталя ХандусенкоAI Eng
9 October 2026, 15:17
2026-10-09
"70-80% of growth will be provided by technology and AI": in the third quarter, AI companies will become the main driver of US business profits
American companies are set to report another strong third-quarter earnings performance. As with the stock market as a whole, the main driver of this financial surge remains tech giants linked to developments in artificial intelligence.
However, amid the euphoria, investors are increasingly concerned about the question: how long will this rapid growth last and what will happen to stocks when the pace begins to slow down?
American companies are set to report another strong third-quarter earnings performance. As with the stock market as a whole, the main driver of this financial surge remains tech giants linked to developments in artificial intelligence.
However, amid the euphoria, investors are increasingly concerned about the question: how long will this rapid growth last and what will happen to stocks when the pace begins to slow down?
AI and energy drive the market
According to the analytical company LSEG, the total profit of companies in the S&P 500 index is expected to grow by approximately 31% in annual terms in the third quarter. At the same time, about two-thirds of this increase will be provided by technology giants, in particular Alphabet (Google), Amazon and Meta, writes Reuters.
“Everything is based on artificial intelligence and, to a lesser extent, on the energy and raw materials sectors — but that’s because of geopolitics. It seems to me that 70-80% of all growth can be safely attributed to technology and AI,” says Samir Samana, head of global equities at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Energy sector companies’ profits have increased by about 115% amid a surge in oil prices due to the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran. In contrast, sectors that are not at all related to AI (such as real estate or consumer goods manufacturing) are showing the weakest performance.
Peak growth and investor concerns
Despite optimistic forecasts, analysts assure that the pace of profit growth is gradually starting to cool down after a record second quarter (when growth reached almost 54%).
The main factors of concern for the market:
Huge capital investments: Companies are spending billions on AI infrastructure (chip purchases, data centers, energy). With each new quarter, the bar for expectations from these investments is getting higher.
Slowdown: For example, semiconductor manufacturers' profits in the third quarter will grow by an estimated 136% compared to 158% in the previous quarter.
High interest rates: Rising bond yields and high borrowing costs create risks for companies with high debt loads.
According to Nick Reich, CEO of research firm The Earnings Scout, the development of AI infrastructure is still moving at breakneck speed, but the dizzying peak of the initial boom is already behind us: “We are still going at 100 mph in AI development, but three months ago we were flying at 150 mph.”
Despite this, positive reports from companies such as Micron Technology (which recorded record long-term contracts worth $32 billion) and Google's new large-scale energy deals indicate that the AI sector remains the most promising sector of the global economy.
The financial reporting season officially starts next week.
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