Back in July 2023, senior US intelligence officials quietly briefed Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon about China’s potential aggression against Taiwan, where over 90% of advanced chip production is concentrated. This could lead to the collapse of the global economy.
Back in July 2023, senior US intelligence officials quietly briefed Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon about China’s potential aggression against Taiwan, where over 90% of advanced chip production is concentrated. This could lead to the collapse of the global economy.
CIA Director William J. Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes allegedly told executives that China's military buildup indicates that Beijing may be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. This is reported by Tom's Hardware, citing the NYT.
Thus, the US government has clearly articulated the potential risks for companies that depend most on access to advanced chips.
Taiwan produces about 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, mostly through Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC. A blockade or invasion would immediately disrupt global chip supply chains, with cascading effects on consumer electronics, artificial intelligence infrastructure, automotive manufacturing and defense systems.
The Biden and Trump administrations have previously worked to force major U.S. tech companies to switch sources of supply. The intelligence warning is also an attempt to convince companies that geopolitical risk is no longer theoretical.
The NYT investigation notes that market incentives alone have been insufficient to significantly reduce dependence on Taiwan. Building advanced manufacturing facilities in the United States has proven to be an expensive and slow process.
Although Tim Cook assured intelligence officials that he sleeps "with one eye open," Apple and other major American technology companies have not significantly accelerated their commitments to purchase new chips made in the United States.
Experts believe that if Beijing launches military action against Taiwan and successfully disrupts semiconductor exports, the immediate economic impact would likely surpass the 2008 financial crisis. It could lead to a more than 11% decline in US GDP.
Recall that in 2024, a powerful earthquake hit Taiwan , which led to the suspension of work in northern industrial areas. TSMC stopped some chip production machines and evacuated personnel.
Local rival United Microelectronics Corp. also halted equipment at some plants and evacuated certain facilities at its Hsinchu and Tainan hubs. TSMC shares fell 1.3% and UMC fell nearly 1%.
