Blockchain platform Polymarket is taking bets on whether a nuclear strike will happen this year. We are probably talking about a nuclear weapon from the Russian Federation — it is the leaders of this country who constantly threaten to press the red button.
Blockchain platform Polymarket is taking bets on whether a nuclear strike will happen this year. We are probably talking about a nuclear weapon from the Russian Federation — it is the leaders of this country who constantly threaten to press the red button.
Currently, according to betting, only 9% of players believe in the probability of a nuclear strike. A few days ago, this figure reached 25%.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction platform based on the Polygon blockchain. Users make predictions, predicting the results of sports championships, economic and political events, etc.
The Polymarket team positions its product as one of the largest projects in the prediction market.
The rapid growth of the platform’s popularity took place against the background of the debate between US presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The Polymarket platform was founded by the American Shane Coplan in 2020. The company is registered in the state of Delaware and the office is located in New York.
Futures betting exchange is based on blockchain technology. The Polymarket system has its own rules. Moreover, it is much cheaper for optimists to make bets than for optimists who do not see the threat of a nuclear explosion. A bet on «YES» costs only 9 cents, a negative answer — 92 cents. This is due to the fact that the probability of an explosion is currently low, so the winnings will be shared among those who bet on «NO».
This market will end with a YES result if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between July 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Otherwise, the market will end with the result «NO».
In order for the market to end with a «YES» result, any nuclear weapon explosion anywhere on planet Earth is enough. This includes offensive uses, nuclear tests and accidental explosions.
Using or launching an unexploded nuclear weapon, a fake unexploded weapon, or a «dirty bomb» that sprays radioactive material with a conventional explosion is not sufficient for a YES result.
Only a successful nuclear explosion will result in the market ending with a «YES» result. This market may close with a YES once a nuclear explosion is confirmed by most credible sources.
To complete this market, the determination of whether an explosion was nuclear will be based on the majority of credible sources.
