In 2025, the world is once again on the brink of serious economic turmoil. Trade wars, slowing global growth, falling investment activity, and new technological risks form an alarming backdrop. dev.ua has collected 5 key questions that the market is asking itself today to understand the scale and likelihood of a crisis in the next 12–24 months.
In 2025, the world is once again on the brink of serious economic turmoil. Trade wars, slowing global growth, falling investment activity, and new technological risks form an alarming backdrop. dev.ua has collected 5 key questions that the market is asking itself today to understand the scale and likelihood of a crisis in the next 12–24 months.
Most major institutions — the World Bank, the IMF, the OECD — are warning of a significant slowdown in global growth. But they are not talking about a guaranteed recession at the moment, only about increased risks and vulnerabilities of economies. The IMF, in its financial stability report , speaks of «significantly increased risks,» especially due to the overvaluation of stocks and corporate debt. Increased uncertainty can provoke corrections in the markets, which further burdens the financial systems.
JP Morgan Research has lowered its estimate of the probability of a recession in the US and the world in 2025 from 60% to 40%. The reason is the sharp de-escalation of trade tensions and the rollback of the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff plans.
«We no longer expect a recession in the U.S., but we do see significant headwinds that will keep growth weak through the end of the year,» said Joseph Lupton, global economist at JP Morgan. Recession risks have eased as the U.S. and China have effectively halted tariff escalation and the Trump administration has signaled less willingness to sacrifice short-term growth for the sake of
However, despite the reduced risk of recession, the world is entering a slowdown, according to JP Morgan Research. Global growth is expected to be 1,3%, almost a percentage point below potential.
Goldman Sachs, in turn, lowered the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 30% (from 35%) due to easing trade tensions and stabilizing financial conditions. In March, Goldman predicted the probability of a recession at ~35% earlier — in the context of increased US tariffs. Goldman CEO David Solomon stated that «the prospect of a recession has increased» due to US trade tariffs, which pose «significant material risks» to global growth.
Mark Zandi of Moody’s estimates a 50% chance of a recession due to tariffs and immigration policies. Deloitte and UCLA’s forecasts are more distant. They believe that a recession in the US could not begin until the end of 2026.
Among the key drivers of a possible crisis are the following:
According to the IMF, a key factor is «political uncertainty» — trade barriers and tariffs are rising, and markets are reacting to this. The IMF also warns of record debt levels in many countries, which increases vulnerability to new shocks.
The World Bank adds that rising tariffs and the trade war are negatively impacting investment and trade.
The IMF estimates that global inflation will exceed 5% in 2025 at about 31% of the time. For many countries, rising prices will put pressure on central banks to keep interest rates high, which will dampen growth.
The World Bank has similar forecasts, however, leading financial institutions expect a gradual decline in inflation in 2026.
Inflation in Ukraine could be many times higher than the global average. This means that prices will rise rapidly (and this is already happening now), and the unemployment rate will potentially also increase.
According to McKinsey Global Institute estimates, global GDP could grow by 1.2–1.5%. AI allows banks and financial companies to more accurately assess the risks and debt capacity of clients, which can reduce the likelihood of bankruptcies. At the same time, high-frequency trading algorithms and automated risk management can accelerate market volatility in times of crisis, the IMF reports.
In addition, AI is replacing routine and partially complex tasks, while creating high-tech jobs. The OECD predicts that 14% of jobs in the world could be significantly impacted by AI, and another 32% could be partially impacted, requiring retraining of personnel.
And AI helps predict macroeconomic risks, model recession scenarios, and optimize government spending.
Some analysts, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, have warned that AI hype could increase debt and market risk if the technology is implemented without proper regulation. At the same time, AI could mitigate the negative effects of trade wars, inflation, and energy shocks by better managing resources and predicting economic scenarios.
Moreover, many experts predict that the AI bubble may burst. Altman himself acknowledges the existence of a «bubble»: he compares the current hype around AI to the dot-com boom of the 1990s. He is sure that «someone will burn out badly,» but believes that in the long term, AI will bring economic benefits.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinshas warns of the potential for a «dot-com-style» crash: The AI investment boom could be about to correct. But he says a systemic financial crisis is unlikely because much of the investment in AI is not debt-financed, but money from wealthy tech companies.
According to BNP Paribas, if the AI bubble bursts, it could not only affect the stock market, but also «hit» the US economy: a large share of GDP growth in 2025 was allegedly «fueled» by AI investments.
Yet the most likely scenario is a correction, not a complete failure: investments may adjust, some of the overvaluations will decline, but AI technology itself, its infrastructure, and its key players are unlikely to «disappear.» For investors and businesses, this means: be prepared for volatility, consider partial monetization of profits or «hedging,» rather than betting on the complete disappearance of the AI industry.
Ukrainian economists and financiers are preparing for the crisis period. Anatoliy Amelin, Director of Economic Programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, names the following scenarios for the 12-month horizon:
«The current political trajectory of the US makes the crisis scenario more likely with each quarter. World leaders are well aware of this scenario, which is why China is extremely motivated not to stop the war in Ukraine. And the States desperately need this stop. As well as involving China in a new war, but that’s another story,» he states.
For 2026, Dragon Capital CEO Tomasz Fiala Dragon Capital is considering two scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy.
The first is conservative. It assumes that the active phase of hostilities will last throughout 2026. In this case, GDP growth will be 1,5%, annual inflation will be 5,3%, and the national currency will devalue by up to 10%. Ukraine will need $8 billion to cover the budget deficit, and about $35 billion for the purchase of weapons and ammunition.
The second scenario is optimistic, based on the assumption that active hostilities will end in late 2025 or early 2026. In this case, Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 5%, but inflation will also be slightly higher, up to 7,5%. In addition, up to 1 million Ukrainians will return to their homeland.
Fiala also predicts that in December Ukraine will conclude a new cooperation agreement with the IMF, designed for four years — more likely, based on the conservative scenario that the active war will last until 2027.
