Meta is preparing to launch an experimental app called Arena, which will allow users to make predictions on various events. This is another attempt by Mark Zuckerberg to diversify the company’s ecosystem and find new growth points outside of Facebook and Instagram.
Meta is preparing to launch an experimental app called Arena, which will allow users to make predictions on various events. This is another attempt by Mark Zuckerberg to diversify the company’s ecosystem and find new growth points outside of Facebook and Instagram.
Prediction markets, where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events — from elections to sports matches — have become one of the fastest-growing segments of the internet. According to data, trading volume on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi will reach $50 billion in 2025, and this year the figure has already exceeded $130 billion.
Meta, as reported by the New York Times, has not been left out of this trend. According to insiders, Mark Zuckerberg has tasked a small team with developing its own application, which has been internally named Arena.
The mechanics of the project are as follows: unlike its direct competitors, Meta’s app will likely not feature real money wagering. Instead, a points system is being considered, although the company has not ruled out the possibility of moving to real money betting in the future.
Arena is planned to be a separate app from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. However, Meta plans to attract users by referring audiences from its core social networks, which have a base of over 3.56 billion daily active users.
It’s part of Zuckerberg’s strategy to build new products based on new social patterns. As Meta’s core platforms become increasingly video-centric, it’s harder for the company to test new ideas on them, so it’s relying on standalone apps.
This isn’t Meta’s first foray into forecasting. In 2020, the company released Forecast, an app that used a scoring system for predictions, but it wasn’t a success and was shut down in 2022.
Today, the situation is different, but the challenges are greater. The prediction markets sector is under scrutiny from regulators due to the risks of insider trading and the use of confidential information for profit. In particular, Senator Richard Blumenthal has already criticized Meta’s plans, saying that the company, which previously «copied slot machines to get kids on Instagram,» is now trying to turn the business into a betting platform.
Arena is currently in the development phase, and according to insiders, there is no guarantee that the application will ever be released.
