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Наталя ХандусенкоAI Eng
10 February 2026, 11:16
2026-02-10
"The direct impact of a potential crisis may be relatively minor, but the secondary effects will be more noticeable," the NBU says about the risks of an AI bubble for Ukraine. In particular, IT exports may suffer
The overcapitalization of the US AI sector raises concerns about the formation of a speculative “bubble”. If hopes for AI are not justified, a collapse could destabilize the global economy. For Ukraine, the direct risks of such a possible crisis are moderate, but the indirect consequences may require the NBU to adjust monetary policy.
The overcapitalization of the US AI sector raises concerns about the formation of a speculative “bubble”. If hopes for AI are not justified, a collapse could destabilize the global economy. For Ukraine, the direct risks of such a possible crisis are moderate, but the indirect consequences may require the NBU to adjust monetary policy.
This is stated in the "Inflation Report" of the National Bank of Ukraine for January 2026.
"The direct impact of a potential crisis on the foreign exchange market, financial system, and economy of Ukraine may be relatively minor, but the secondary effects will be more noticeable and, under certain circumstances, will require a response from the NBU's monetary policy," the NBU notes in the report.
For Ukraine, the consequences of the crisis in the US AI sector will be mostly indirect. Although the direct dependence of GDP on the US IT market is minimal (0.13%), the global recession in the tech sector threatens Ukrainian exports of services. Given that in 2025, IT exports provided $6.8 billion (over 12% of total exports), its reduction will lead to a decrease in foreign exchange earnings, a drop in tax revenues, and a weakening of domestic consumption.
The crisis in the AI sector may cause a “domino effect” for traditional sectors of the Ukrainian economy. Due to the cooling of the economies of the countries - the main trading partners (OTP), exports of metallurgy and mechanical engineering will suffer. Another factor will be the labor market abroad: the growth of unemployment among migrants will lead to a reduction in remittances, which will reduce the inflow of currency and weaken consumption. However, the low share of IT specialists among migrants (up to 5%) makes these risks moderate.
The decline in interest in AI could lead to a drop in energy prices due to a decrease in projected demand. Although data centers consume only 3% of the world's electricity, up to 40% of their needs are provided by gas and coal. Slowing down the expansion of AI infrastructure will lead to cheaper fossil fuels. For Ukraine, as an importer of energy resources, this means an improvement in the trade balance and a decrease in inflationary pressure on the cost of goods. At the same time, this is strategically beneficial, as it will reduce Russia's foreign exchange earnings from raw material exports.
The potential direct impact of the correction of leading stock indices on the financial system of Ukraine is also insignificant.
However, Ukraine may experience secondary effects through tightening financial conditions and the redistribution of global capital flows.
The fall in the US stock market will provoke a weakening of the dollar, which will lead to a mirror strengthening of the euro. For Ukraine, this means an increase in the cost of imports from the EU, which will create additional inflationary pressure. However, in the medium term, the situation will stabilize: the ECB is expected to ease interest rate policy to contain excessive strengthening of the euro, which will subsequently offset external price risks.
The crisis in the AI sector could trigger an increase in the cost of borrowing not only in stocks but also in the bond market. This would increase financial pressure on partner countries, forcing them to direct resources to saving their own systems, rather than external assistance. For Ukraine, this threatens with delays in budget financing. The need to find internal alternatives in such a case would pose a threat to macro-financial stability and force the NBU to review monetary policy.
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