The National Bank restored a record high dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia on January 6. The hryvnia fell to a historic low.
The National Bank restored a record high dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia on January 6. The hryvnia fell to a historic low.
Now one dollar costs 42.42 UAH.
Will it continue to grow?
The state budget for 2026 includes a dollar exchange rate of 45.7 hryvnias. In turn, optimism about business development in 2026 is growing among the heads of member companies of the European Business Association. They include an average dollar exchange rate of 46 UAH/$ in their budgets, expect revenue growth, and focus on priority tasks for the Government, in particular, the fight against corruption, judicial reform, and the fulfillment of obligations within the framework of European integration.
Similar forecasts are made by Dragon Capital, where they set the exchange rate at 44 hryvnias per dollar. The ICU group predicts 44.3 hryvnias for the US currency, the Kyiv School of Economics predicts 44.5 hryvnias, and Concorde Capital predicts 44.8 hryvnias. «We expect that at the end of 2026 the dollar exchange rate will be about 45 hryvnias, and the euro about 55 hryvnias. The NBU will have enough reserves to continue implementing the policy of managed flexibility. On the one hand, the devaluation of the hryvnia will allow us to improve the imbalances in the balance of goods and services, the expansion of which we see this year. On the other hand, the rate of devaluation will be lower than the profitability of hryvnia assets, which the NBU constantly mentions,» said Serhiy Kolodiy, chief expert on macroeconomic analysis at Raiffeisen Bank, in an interview.
The Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, Serhiy Magomedov, predicts that during 2026, the NBU’s strategy in the foreign exchange market is unlikely to change significantly, and the National Bank’s interventions will continue to restrain chaotic exchange rate movements.
In January-March, the official dollar exchange rate will fluctuate within UAH 42.6-43. Factors restraining the devaluation of the hryvnia this season will be the payment of taxes by companies for 2025 (the need to purchase hryvnia) and a seasonal decrease in demand for the currency.
If the war lasts the whole year, the maximum value of the official dollar exchange rate will be 44-45 UAH, and the euro — 51-52 UAH. If the hostilities cease, the official dollar exchange rate may reach 44 UAH, and the euro — 51 UAH.
