Марія Бровінська That's Life 4 March 2026, 11:33

In Ukraine, traders are putting a "horse" price tag on fuel, but there is no shortage. Gasoline is already 70 UAH. What to expect?

After the start of the war in Iran, the oil market opened higher, but without the expected panic. On Monday, quotes rose to $82 per barrel, compared to $72 on Friday.

This was announced by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group.

According to him, investment bankers traditionally predicted scenarios of $100–150 per barrel, but the market reacted much more restrainedly.

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In Ukraine, traders are putting a "horse" price tag on fuel, but there is no shortage. Gasoline is already 70 UAH. What to expect?

After the start of the war in Iran, the oil market opened higher, but without the expected panic. On Monday, quotes rose to $82 per barrel, compared to $72 on Friday.

This was announced by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group.

According to him, investment bankers traditionally predicted scenarios of $100–150 per barrel, but the market reacted much more restrainedly.

What is happening in Ukraine?

The first reaction to the news was the closure of wholesale fuel trade.

On Monday, only three traders — UPG, ZPEK, and Martin Trade — put up so-called «gasoline truck» offers, and at increased prices. Most market players took a break «until the circumstances are clarified.»

Some overseas suppliers have also reported a temporary suspension of additional deliveries.

The main risk is panic.

Energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev, in a commentary on Channel 24, noted that the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East has shaken the oil market. After all, the movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has become more difficult, and one of the largest refineries in the world has stopped.

«Military risks have mostly already been built into the price of oil, and now the situation is that market participants want to make money on this growth,» Ryabtsev notes.

According to Kuyun, the key threat now is not a shortage, but a psychological factor. Some gas station chains in the middle segment are trying to bring prices closer to premium leaders. Market leaders are also building a safety margin. During the week, according to his forecast, prices may increase by 2–3 UAH per liter.

«In Ukraine, the first reaction was to curtail wholesale trade: on Monday, only three traders — UPG, ZPEK, and Martin Trade — offered „gasoline“ offers with a horse price tag (sorry, just market), and the majority generally refrained „until clarification“,» noted Kuyun.

The expert warns: price increases are often perceived by consumers as a signal to urgently purchase fuel, which only fuels the hype.

«It’s funny to watch the hysteria surrounding the strikes on refineries and gas liquefaction plants, saying that a couple of drones flew in and paralyzed half the globe. Our not-so-young and technological Ukrtatnafta was destroyed in June last year with the help of 80 missiles and 250 drones. Do you seriously think that 2 shaheeds will be able to greatly destabilize the work of modern enterprises in Qatar and Saudi Arabia?», — Kuyun asks ironically.

Is there a risk of shortage?

According to Kuyun, there is currently no reason to panic.

First, gasoline is expected to be in sufficient supply in March. There are also no signs of a shortage of diesel.

Secondly, the disappearance of the frost resistance factor has expanded import opportunities. And the Hungarian-Slovak direction is not even mentioned as critical due to the market surplus.

Apocalyptic scenarios regarding the blocking of the pipelines or the mass shutdown of refineries have not yet been realized, Kuyun assures.

What’s next?

Oleksandra Sirenko, an analyst at the Naftorynok consulting company, told RBC-Ukraine that since Ukraine depends on imports of petroleum products, any price changes in Europe will be felt by domestic consumers. If oil continues to rise in price, prices at Ukrainian gas stations will also go up.

At the same time, if world prices decrease, the cost of fuel should fall. However, Sirenko emphasizes, in practice, Ukrainian networks are reluctant to take such a step, justifying it by selling old stocks.

The director of the A-95 consulting group predicts that the market needs to «wait out» the current week. If the Iranian factor does not escalate, prices may adjust downwards.

«There is enough oil in the world, and there could be more,» the expert notes, hinting at potential changes in global production.

In this case, fuel prices in Ukraine may also decrease.

«Personally, I expect low prices as soon as the „Iranian“ factor disappears. There is already a lot of oil in the world, and it will become even more, because one way or another, production in Iran has been squeezed by long-term sanctions. And accordingly, prices in Ukraine will fall, we will closely monitor this and, if necessary, accelerate it as much as possible,» the expert noted.