"Using the wisdom of crowds for accurate predictions". Polymarket allows betting on US strikes on Iran
Prediction market Polymarket allowed users to bet on when the US would strike Iran next. The company explained what guided its decision.
Prediction market Polymarket allowed users to bet on when the US would strike Iran next. The company explained what guided its decision.
The company said that prediction markets are an «invaluable» source of news and answers, The Verge reports .
«The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of crowds to generate accurate, unbiased predictions about the most important events for society. This ability is especially valuable in difficult times like today. After speaking with those directly affected by the attacks and having dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed, unlike TV news and X [Twitter],» Polymarket said in a statement.
On Saturday, February 28, Iran experienced a near-total «internet blackout» following the start of a joint US-Israeli military operation. Israel’s defense minister announced a «preemptive strike» on Iran as part of Operation Lion’s Roar. It later emerged that Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, had been killed in the attack.
Recall that in November 2025 , there were about 100 active bets on the Russian-Ukrainian war on Polymarket — such as whether the Russians would capture Pokrovsk by the end of the year, or when a ceasefire would occur. According to Forbes Ukraine, there were 97 active bets in November for a total of $96.8 million. The largest number of bets ($27 million) was placed on a bet on a ceasefire by the end of 2025, which has about a 5% probability.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) later found itself at the center of a scandal over a change to its map of the war in Ukraine, which became the basis for betting on the Polymarke platform. The incident, which occurred in November, forced ISW to admit to interference that could have affected the financial results of betting on the market.
Also, the developers of the PolyGlobe map, which visualizes bets from Polymarket with geolocation, unauthorizedly used the API of the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState. In this way, they wanted to improve the visualization of bets on the capture of Ukrainian cities by the Russians.
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After the Israeli and US attacks, the internet in Iran was almost completely shut down
After the Israeli and US attacks, the internet in Iran was almost completely shut down
Access to the Polymarket prediction market platform will be blocked in Ukraine: what is known
Access to the Polymarket prediction market platform will be blocked in Ukraine: what is known
