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None of Russia's 16 new Rassvet satellites have reached operational orbit. What does this mean for the project?

Russia has had problems with the deployment of its Rassvet satellite network, which is being built as a local alternative to Starlink. All 16 satellites from the new batch launched on July 19 have failed to reach a working orbit in more than a month. Some of the devices have already begun to lose altitude.

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None of Russia's 16 new Rassvet satellites have reached operational orbit. What does this mean for the project?

Russia has had problems with the deployment of its Rassvet satellite network, which is being built as a local alternative to Starlink. All 16 satellites from the new batch launched on July 19 have failed to reach a working orbit in more than a month. Some of the devices have already begun to lose altitude.

This was noted by Business Insider, which analyzed open data on satellite orbits.

The project is being carried out by Bureau 1440. After the launch, it reported that the satellites had successfully entered the reference orbit, separated from the rocket, and passed under the control of the mission control center. However, none of the 16 devices in the new batch has yet reached the altitude at which most of the satellites in the previous batch operate.

The Russian Military Informer, citing the SONIKS service, writes that all 16 satellites remain below 390 km. Six of them are at an altitude of about 290–340 km and are already gradually descending. If the trend does not change, some of the devices may leave orbit in the coming months.

"This could eventually lead to the loss of several devices from the second batch in the coming months," the Russian publication notes.

For comparison, most of the satellites from the first batch rose to approximately 520–540 km. However, one of them had already managed to leave orbit and burn up in the atmosphere.

Moreover, back in early August, the Russian publication ComNews drew attention to the fact that the second batch remained in low orbit. At the time, Bureau 1440 assured that the creation of the system was “going according to plan,” and that the satellites were simply undergoing routine work and adjustments.

At the same time, Bureau 1440 initially designed the system to operate at an altitude of about 800 km. In July, the Russian ComNews suggested that the company could have changed its plans and stopped at about 514 km, since most of the first batch of devices stopped actively climbing higher. Bureau 1440 did not confirm at the time whether it had indeed decided to change the operating orbit.

In addition, according to the federal plan, by the end of 2026, the constellation should have 156 Rassvet-3 satellites. Only two launches took place in early August. This means that the company still has seven more launches to go and put more than a hundred devices into orbit in a few months.

So far, Russia has launched 32 satellites in two batches. According to Business Insider, only 12 of them have reached orbits where they can remain for a long time. And defense technology adviser Sergei Beskrestnov previously estimated that the Russians would need at least 200-250 satellites to maintain stable coverage.

Previously, dev.ua analyzed the Russian project "Rassvet" in detail. The system is intended to provide the Russian military with its own satellite communications, which can be used to control strike drones in real time.

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Read the country's main IT news in our Telegram
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