"Those who previously could not imagine themselves outside Silicon Valley are now looking at Thailand, Europe or Canada as a 'plan B'." Ukrainian IT professionals in the US - about the first two months of Trump's rule and the consequences for the tech sector

We received answers from both IT professionals who work for American companies and those who work for Ukrainian and international companies but live in the USA. Nevertheless, with certain nuances, their assessments of the situation are quite similar. All IT professionals who commented on these issues for dev.ua agree on one thing — this will definitely have consequences for the American tech sector and is already directly or indirectly affecting them. The only question is how much this situation will continue to deepen. And whether it will move from alarming but controlled trends to a real crisis.

«If the market does not level out soon, companies will cut costs and staff»

Yevgeny Vershinin, Software Delivery Manager at Ahold Delhaize USA, like all his colleagues we interviewed, gives an unequivocal answer — the US economy and the technology sector in particular are already feeling the impact of the new policy of the country’s leadership. And these «feelings» are not the most pleasant and optimistic.

«The US economy and the technology business are very connected through the stock market. As the last couple of weeks have shown, the market is falling, which means that the solvency of companies is also falling. If the market does not level out in the near future, companies will begin to cut costs and staff. This will affect the already unstable technology business in the US,» the IT expert is convinced.

Bohdan Opryshko, COO at blockchain company Everstake, states that the real effect of recent changes in US economic policy and their impact on the technology business will depend on the duration and scale of the decisions made. Statements and political initiatives, in his opinion, can be adjusted every few days, so there are currently no signs of catastrophic consequences for the technology sector. But there are significant risks. And they need to be taken into account.

«There are several risks that could negatively affect the development and competitiveness of American companies. Sanctions against China could lead to increased costs for importing critical components, such as microchips and rare earth metals. China remains a key supplier of hardware and manufacturing capacity, so trade restrictions could slow down production,» says Bohdan Opryshko.

He believes that volatility and sharp fluctuations in stock markets can make it difficult to attract investment, which is especially important for startups and fast-growing companies. In turn, falling valuations can make them less attractive to international investors.

The COO at Everstake also emphasizes another important factor — political decisions on immigration and the US’s dependence on highly skilled foreign technology professionals.

«Restrictions on the issuance of work visas and tightening immigration policies may reduce the influx of talent, which will negatively affect Silicon Valley,» says Opryshko.

At the same time, according to Bohdan Opryshko, if companies operate mainly in the domestic US market, then significant changes in their activities may not occur. But those startups or corporations that depend on international financing may face difficulties due to the changing geopolitical situation and reduced confidence in American financial markets.

QA Engineering Director at Amazon Oleksandr Nosok, in his comment, also draws attention to immigration policy as one of the key factors.

«If immigration policy becomes stricter, the US could lose thousands of talented developers and scientists who are already choosing other states, and sometimes even countries — Canada or Europe as an alternative. And when there is a lack of new ideas and personnel, this is a direct blow to competitiveness,» he argues.

«Either companies raise prices or look for complicated workarounds that also cost money»

Similarly, like his colleague, Oleksandr Nosok sees a significant impact on the tech sector in the increase in tariffs for China.

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«This automatically raises the cost not only of cars, but also of all electronics that use Chinese components — smartphones, laptops, servers, chips, even banal chargers. The US technology business depends on a global supply chain, and any sharp restriction or additional costs on imports mean two scenarios: either companies raise prices or look for complex workarounds, which also cost money,» explains QA Engineering Director at Amazon.

The impact of such a policy, primarily on supply chains, is also highlighted by Natalia Popelnyukh, Chief Executive Officer at Netpeak USA.

«Technology businesses are highly integrated into global supply chains, so trade wars and new import/export restrictions in February-March have created additional risks for companies working with partners abroad. In addition, the political unpredictability and market turbulence we have seen in recent weeks will also affect the investment climate. All this may further complicate access to financing for startups and technology companies that depend on venture capital,» she is convinced.

According to her, there are different, sometimes polar opinions among colleagues and clients: some see new opportunities (for example, the exit of Chinese companies from the market opens niches for American startups), while others are worried about the future, especially if their business is connected to global markets (such as Canada, China and/or Europe).

«In general, the topic of political turbulence has been discussed very often recently, especially in the context of changes in migration policy, potential tax innovations, and a quite likely recession in the US, which can affect both career growth opportunities, income levels, and the comfort of people’s lives, as well as the ability of businesses to grow and develop,» explains Natalia Popelnyukh.

«People don’t understand what the ultimate goal of this policy is»

As noted by Alexander Nosok, QA Engineering Director at Amazon, people’s mood, particularly in the IT environment, is currently mixed, but skepticism prevails.

«People don’t understand what the ultimate goal of this policy is. Some people think it’s a stock market game — the market reacts to every new announcement, and if you have the inside track and understand where everything is going, you can make good money. Others tend to think it’s just political pressure to force China to reconsider its economic strategies. But for us, those of us who work in technology, it means real risks,» he explains.

According to the expert, if tariffs on imported electronics continue to rise, products that depend on these components will become more expensive. Meanwhile, salaries are unlikely to grow as quickly, which means purchasing power will decrease.

«And if this also affects venture funding (and it may fall due to market instability), then startups will start closing even faster than they open. I personally see that people are starting to be more careful in financial decisions: someone is postponing the purchase of real estate, someone is thinking about a backup job, someone is learning to invest to protect themselves from instability,» Oleksandr Nosok gives examples.

He says there is a sense of tension in society: people don’t know where things are going, and this creates a lot of speculation and fear. «Within a circle of friends, it manifests itself in endless conversations, assumptions and trying to find ways to hedge,» he says.

As the specialist notes, against this background, it is interesting to observe how people’s attitudes towards consumption are changing.

«While it used to be possible to spontaneously buy an expensive gadget or invest in cryptocurrency, now people count money more, save for a rainy day, and generally behave more carefully,» shared the QA Engineering Director.

«Maintaining a large number of IT specialists will become too expensive»

Yulia Kachkovska works as a Software QA Analyst at United Parks & Resorts, a company that has a chain of amusement parks across the country with an office in Orlando, Florida. According to her, the economic situation already feels quite tense, but this is just the beginning. Her forecasts for the IT sector in the US are not very optimistic.

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«The new policy leads us to some isolation from cooperation with other countries. This, in turn, will lead us to problems with logistics and supply problems. I think that budgets in companies will be massively cut. And since the IT sector is one of the highest-paid, this will definitely lead to cuts in annual bonuses, bonuses for additional work performed, and it is possible that there will be salary cuts and mass layoffs. Maintaining a large number of IT specialists will become too expensive,» she says.

Karim, Head of Development at a Ukrainian food company, who has been living in the US for the past year and a half and is currently based in Massachusetts, claims that the US technology business is currently experiencing serious difficulties, mainly due to massive layoffs caused by the unstable economic situation.

However, according to the specialist, these changes did not begin recently, but during the previous administration. «The situation is made worse by the rapid development of AI, which many investors see as a universal solution to all problems. During Trump’s term, these challenges have only intensified, and the situation has become even more complicated,» he believes.

According to Karim, who is in the USA under the U4U program, the current political situation, to put it mildly, adds instability to his life, because having a visa/legal status is the foundation without which it is impossible to build a comfortable life abroad.

«Moreover, this political uncertainty is gradually beginning to affect the entire American society, regardless of social status. Mass layoffs are occurring both in the once „elite“ IT sector and in government agencies, which only increases the general tension,» he says.

«People are unhappy with the sharp increase in prices. And salaries have remained the same as they were»

Software QA Analyst Yulia Kachkovska explains the situation using the example of her own company, where employees were openly told that they shouldn’t expect a pay raise in the near future. In addition, companies in the US are increasingly requiring employees to return to office work, which entails at least gas and other expenses.

«People are very unhappy that there has been a sharp increase in prices, and salaries have remained the same. There is also a very large return to the office now. In the company where I work, in particular. We are now expected to work in the office all five days a week, although before that we worked completely separately. And this is a lot of additional expenses for people, in particular for gasoline. Because it is very expensive to drive long distances twice a day,» says QA Analyst.

However, according to Yulia Kachkovskaya, the IT market in the US is still oversaturated, so simply taking a job and changing to one that would provide comfortable conditions and a higher salary is not an option. This could have been done a few years ago, but not now.

«People are forced to accept a lower level of security than they had a few years ago. They practically have no choice now,» she says.

As Yulia Kachkovska told us, she recently even passed by a rally where people were rallying with slogans that one job should be enough.

«Now it’s actually a mass phenomenon when people have to find a second job because their main one suddenly became insufficient to cover their basic living needs. And these are just things like rent, groceries, kindergarten, school. Therefore, the situation in general is very tense and people are under great stress,» says the specialist.

Software Delivery Manager at Ahold Delhaize USA Yevgeny Vershinin supports some of the theses expressed by Yulia Kachkovskaya.

«Colleagues are very concerned about the situation in the market and are monitoring it closely. Everyone is following large companies and what they are doing. Everyone is especially concerned about the constant staff reductions and is worried that the company will reduce their positions as well. I am also, of course, worried about the future of my position and the further prospects in the industry,» Vershinin says.

According to him, taking a manager position, there is a big risk of being laid off, and currently in America it is very difficult to find a new job and this process often takes 3-6-9 months. «Many people say that now is the employer’s market. Many specialists are available on the market, and the employer has the opportunity to choose,» Vershinin adds.

Bohdan Opryshko, COO at blockchain company Everstake, is a bit less categorical in his assessments of the situation, as, in his opinion, most specialists do not expect radical changes in the short term. However, according to him, it is very worth dividing specialists into two categories: the first — those who work with American companies, and the second — those like him, who work with a Ukrainian company but have colleagues in the US.

«We are certainly discussing these issues and admitting the potential negative impact on careers, but will anything change dramatically? Most likely not. The biggest risk is a stricter immigration policy, which could complicate work opportunities in the US. Otherwise, the technology sector remains quite flexible, and the demand for specialists is still high,» Opryshko is convinced.

«There is a certain polarization of society. The situation reminds me a lot of Ukraine in 2019»

The expression «polarization of society» is encountered by several Ukrainian IT users who have not read each other’s comments beforehand. Apparently, it is not really a metaphor, but rather conveys the real state of affairs. IT users also give more specific examples of such «polarization».

According to Natalia Popelnyukh, Chief Executive Officer at Netpeak USA, many people have become more concerned about their future.

«There is a certain polarization of society. The situation reminds me a lot of Ukraine in 2019 (obviously, the presidential elections are meant — ed.). And even in private conversations, I increasingly hear discussions of economic stability, business security, and prospects for the coming years,» says the representative of Netpeak.

According to Software Delivery Manager Yevgeny Vershinin, in general, Americans react differently to the new president’s decision, and it depends a lot on the state and age group of the population. Vershinin himself lives with his family in Massachusetts, which traditionally supports Democrats.

«Here, there is a sense of support for Ukraine and an understanding of the absurdity of President Trump’s decisions and actions. In more Republican states, things are completely different. There is also a sense of polarization of the population and an aggravation of the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans. For example, some Democratic friends refuse to travel and spend their vacations in „Republican“ states. At the same time, Republican acquaintances refuse to even spend 1-2 days in more „democratic“ parts of the country,» says Vershinin.

According to QA Engineering Director Oleksandr Nosok, many in his circle have even begun to consider moving. In particular, according to the IT professional, those who previously could not imagine themselves anywhere outside Silicon Valley are now looking at North Carolina, Thailand, Europe, or Canada as a possible «plan B.»

«For now, the main rule of survival is to keep your finger on the pulse of change, analyze how it can affect you personally, and not be afraid to adapt. As one of the greats said: «It is not those who survive who are the strongest, but those who adapt best,» concludes Oleksandr Nosok.

Bohdan Opryshko agrees with his colleagues that there is significant tension in American society. According to him, political disputes have become a common topic of conversation, especially among colleagues and friends. At the same time, for most technology professionals, the practical impact of this is still minimal. «Life goes on,» he says.

«There is concern about the new president’s further actions towards Ukrainians»

As Yevgeny Vershinin says, he is especially worried about the news about the United States' support for Ukraine (or its lack thereof), and the new policy is very frustrating and directly affects productivity and emotional state.

«There is also concern about the new president’s further actions regarding Ukrainians who have come to the United States in the last three years and are in the country with the status of „password“ and TPS. The turbulence of the new president’s actions does not provide stability and confidence in the future in this country. This affects the possibility of long-term planning, which is reflected in everyday anxiety and uncertainty,» the IT worker described his feelings.

Despite this, at the level of ordinary people, as his colleagues testify, there is still support and sympathy for Ukrainians.

«If we talk about my immediate environment, there is some concern, especially among those who depend on work visas or international investments. But it is worth noting that over the past three years I have not met a person who would wish me or my country anything bad, I have always received only warm words and support for both Ukraine and myself personally,» says Bohdan Opryshko.

Natalia Popelnyukh also feels the support of ordinary Americans, who, in her words, clearly do not share the Trump administration’s views on Ukraine. «Almost everyone I talk to expresses their concern about the behavior of the American government and the fact that it does not reflect the real expectations/values ​​of American society regarding Ukraine and its future,» the Chief Executive Officer at Netpeak USA is convinced.

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