Amazon, Google and Infosys are facing staffing challenges amid geopolitical and economic challenges. Analysts predict that the companies may shift hiring to Canada and Latin America to cushion the impact of rising H-1B costs.
Amazon, Google and Infosys are facing staffing challenges amid geopolitical and economic challenges. Analysts predict that the companies may shift hiring to Canada and Latin America to cushion the impact of rising H-1B costs.
TD Cowen estimates that Trump’s new H-1B visa fee poses serious risks to Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and IT service providers such as Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Cognizant, which are the largest sponsors of these visas. Amazon and AWS alone received more than 12,000 approvals for fiscal year 2025, according to USCIS, Business Insider reports .
The changes come at a challenging time: the IT services sector is already facing economic uncertainty, slowing growth and pressure from the introduction of generative AI. Analysts at TD Cowen warn that the new fee could make the program «economically unviable» for many users, forcing companies to rethink their hiring strategies.
If the new $100,000 fee were applied to the entire H-1B approval base in 2024, the costs to the largest sponsors could reach billions of dollars. Although some exceptions (for example, for national security reasons) could mitigate the impact.
«When it rains, it pours,» TD Cowen analyst Brian Bergin wrote in a note to clients. «This is the last thing the IT services sector needs at a time of ongoing pressure from geopolitical/macroeconomic uncertainty and structural changes from generative AI.»
He added that it also hurts Big Tech and financial companies that heavily use the H-1B program.
According to TD Cowen, outsourcing companies (Cognizant, Infosys, TCS) have 25% to 30% of their employees in the US on H-1B visas.
| 1. | Amazon.com Services LLC | 10,044 |
| 2. | Tata Consultancy Services Ltd | 5,505 |
| 3. | Microsoft Corporation | 5189 |
| 4. | Meta Platforms Inc. | 5 123 |
| 5. | Apple Inc. | 4,202 |
| 6. | Google LLC | 4 181 |
| 7. | Cognizant Tech Solutions | 2,493 |
| 8. | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 2,440 |
| 9. | Wal-Mart Associates Inc. | 2,390 |
|
10. |
Deloitte Consulting LLP | 2,353 |
| 11. | Amazon Web Services Inc. (AWS) | 2,347 |
| 12. | Oracle America Inc. | 2,092 |
| 13. | Infosys Limited | 2,004 |
| 14. | Capgemini America Inc. | 1,844 |
| 15. | LTI Mindtree Limited | 1,807 |
| 16. | HCL America Inc. | 1,728 |
| 17. | Intel Corporation | 1,698 |
| 18. | Ernst & Young US LLP (EY) | 1,695 |
| 19. | IBM Corporation | 1,598 |
| 20. | Cisco Systems Inc. | 1,570 |
Analysts expect companies to start:
However, the shock of rising costs and new bureaucracy could negatively impact the margins of businesses that rely heavily on H-1B.
Not all companies are equally affected. For example, EPAM Systems, Globant and ExlService Holdings are almost completely reliant on H-1B workers, experts say.
According to US data cited by the BBC, Canadians made up about 1% of H-1B applicants in 2019. Toronto immigration lawyer Evan Green said it was «a great opportunity for the Canadian government.» The non-profit organization Build Canada issued a memorandum the same day calling for «action quickly» as hundreds of thousands of highly skilled H-1B professionals are now looking for a new home. «Canada, with its world-class academic institutions, proximity to the US and high quality of life, is a natural destination,» the document said.
Economist Mikal Skuterud from the University of Waterloo believes that Canada’s potential is there, but it should not be overestimated:
the country is reducing immigration quotas,
there are political discussions about the temporary foreign worker program (the opposition calls for its abolition),
Salaries in Canada are lower than in the USA.
«Canada doesn’t look much more predictable than the US. And that’s a problem if you want to attract talent,» he says. However, he acknowledges that the H-1B program in the US has significantly contributed to economic development, especially in the areas of high technology and innovation.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) declined to comment directly on the changes in the US, but reminded of the available options:
Express Entry for skilled workers,
Global Skills Strategy — fast processing of permits for «highly skilled» foreigners.
Department spokesman Matthew Krupowicz added that the government continues to «look for new solutions to attract the world’s brightest talent.»
By the way, when the H-1B quota was cut by 70% in 2004, American corporations simply transferred the necessary specialists to Canada, where the rules were more loyal. In 2023, the Canadian government even introduced a special program for H-1B holders in the United States: a three-year Canadian work permit. The quota was exhausted less than 24 hours after it opened — 10,000 applications. Some of these specialists did indeed move, although many now face difficulties in obtaining permanent residence.
