The end of cryptocurrencies, a cybersecurity threat or research progress? What to expect from Google's new mega-powerful quantum chip Willow: a cyber expert, developers and economist explain

Google’s Willow quantum chip is indeed a major step forward in the development of quantum technology. It demonstrates a reduction in computational errors even with increasing numbers of qubits, which is an important prerequisite for creating full-fledged commercial quantum computers. However, the chip raises both high expectations and certain concerns.

Potential dangers of a quantum chip

While the Willow quantum chip is a significant advancement in computing technology, its use carries a number of potential threats that should be considered.

1. Threat to modern cryptographic systems. Indeed, quantum computers potentially threaten current cryptographic standards, including RSA, ECC, and others that rely on the complexity of factoring large numbers or the discrete logarithm. Thanks to Shor’s algorithm, a quantum computer with a sufficient number of stable qubits can solve such problems extremely quickly, which theoretically threatens the security of banking transactions. If encrypted bank databases or transaction systems are compromised, this could lead to significant financial losses and a collapse of trust in digital finance.
2. Hacking Blockchain Technologies Blockchain systems, on which cryptocurrencies and smart contracts are based, are also vulnerable to quantum attacks. Quantum computer algorithms can reveal the private keys of cryptocurrency wallets, which makes it possible to misappropriate funds. Vulnerability of digital signature algorithms in blockchains puts the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem at risk.
3. Data privacy breaches. Quantum computers pose a threat to the privacy of government, medical, or corporate databases. Even if data has been stored for a long time, there is a risk that it could be decrypted «retroactively» if it is protected by algorithms that are vulnerable to quantum attacks.
4. Expanding cybercrime capabilities: Criminals could use quantum computers to attack secure communications, create more powerful malware, and bypass security systems. This could make it more difficult to combat cybercrime, particularly in areas such as finance, government services, and defense.
5. Geopolitical instability. Quantum computing technology is of strategic importance. Its possession could significantly change the balance of power between countries that have access to quantum technologies and those that do not. The country that first achieves superiority in quantum computing will be able to decrypt the closed communications of other countries and gain a strategic advantage.

However, the current stage of development of quantum computers is still far from practical use for such purposes. Currently, Willow can perform calculations that would take trillions of years on classical computers only for highly specialized tasks (for example, optimization or modeling in chemistry and physics), but not for widespread codebreaking. In addition, quantum cryptography is actively developing as an answer to these challenges, offering algorithms resistant to quantum attacks (for example, post-quantum cryptography).

Prospects and advantages

A quantum chip has significant potential to solve complex problems in many areas due to its ability to perform calculations that are beyond the reach of traditional computers. Here are some key areas where it could be useful:

1. Developing new materials Quantum computers are capable of simulating the behavior of atoms and molecules at the quantum level. This will allow the creation of new materials with unique properties or the optimization of existing materials for specific needs.
2. Modeling chemical reactions on a chip can help solve chemistry-related problems, such as developing new drugs and improving production processes in the pharmaceutical and chemical industries.
3. Logistics optimization.

Engineers on the Railsware team met the news from Google with skepticism, considering it more of a hype than a breakthrough that will change the industry in the near future. In particular, they cited the opinion of a number of Western observers who remind us that this is not the first quantum innovation from Google. B

Moreover, they draw attention to the fact that the company claims: Willow performed calculations in five minutes that would take one of the most powerful supercomputers today 10 to the 25th power years. At the same time, this means that verifying the results with current capabilities would also take 10 to the 25th power years. And as Google itself noted, this is much longer than the time of the existence of the Universe.

However, even if we try to extrapolate this computing power to today’s tech landscape, we still have to wait until Willow can produce stable and predictable results. «In this case, we will have to redo all the encryption systems, because with Willow it will be much faster to crack it with pure brute force,» suggests Artur Hebda, Full Stack Engineer at Railsware. And his colleagues jokingly add: «And we will also make data conversion in our Coupler.io even faster, if that is even possible.»

This chip can perform calculations in five minutes that would take a modern supercomputer 10 septillion (!) times. That’s a number with 25 zeros, far more than the estimated number of stars in the Milky Way.

So what are we waiting for?

Positive opportunities

1. Breakthrough in scientific research. Quantum computing can accelerate the modeling of complex systems in physics, chemistry, and biology, leading to new discoveries.
2. Advances in medicine. Fast computing will enable more efficient drug development and genomic data analysis. Moreover, it will enable accurate diagnoses, prevention of future diseases, and effective customized treatment programs.
3. Energy: Quantum computing could help develop more efficient and sustainable energy sources, such as nuclear fusion.
4. Logistics and finance optimization. Quantum algorithms can significantly improve route planning and risk management.
5. Advances in artificial intelligence. Quantum computers can speed up the learning of complex neural networks (which are already evolving not every day, but every hour).

But (there are also negative consequences

1. Forget cybersecurity. Quantum computers could break all current encryption systems, requiring the development of new methods for protecting data.
2. Increasing technological gap between the US and other countries (including Ukraine)Access to quantum computing may be limited to developed countries and large corporations.
3. Powerful computing can be used to create more advanced surveillance and control systems.
4. Some industries may face rapid changes due to the new capabilities of quantum computing.
5. The military application of quantum technologies could lead to a new round of international tension.
6. And the most interesting thing is the end of cryptocurrencies, and primarily Bitcoin! Based on the required figure of 13 million qubits, it is theoretically possible to decrypt the SHA-256 algorithm of the first cryptocurrency in a day using 124,000 Willow. With a one-year term, only 340 chips from Google will be needed.

When will these threats become reality?

To date, over 30 governments have committed over $40 billion in public funding for quantum technologies, to be deployed over the next 10 years.

In January 2024, QuEra Computing announced a strategic roadmap for a series of error-correcting quantum computers, starting in 2024 and culminating in a 100-qubit error-correcting system in 2026.

The collapse is not long to wait. Just a little over a year. In a year, if there is no collapse in 2026, then in 2027 China will be ready to invade Taiwan and the World will plunge into the Third World. Now you live with it!

Google has introduced a quantum chip with incredible computing speed: in 5 minutes it will perform a task that would take a supercomputer ten septillion years

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Google has introduced a quantum chip with incredible computing speed: in 5 minutes it will perform a task that would take a supercomputer ten septillion years

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