AI analyst and investor Mykhailo Patsan said that if the state does not change its tax policy now, budget losses will reach almost $6 billion each year, which threatens the collapse of the social and pension systems.
AI analyst and investor Mykhailo Patsan said that if the state does not change its tax policy now, budget losses will reach almost $6 billion each year, which threatens the collapse of the social and pension systems.
By 2029, the rapid development of AI technologies could lead to the automation of 20% of jobs in Ukraine. Investor, entrepreneur, and artificial intelligence expert Mykhailo Patsan warned about this in his post.
Analyzing global trends and recent statements by OpenAI regarding the possible disappearance of full employment , the expert modeled a conservative scenario for Ukraine. According to him, global data already records a 34% increase in productivity thanks to AI, which mathematically allows employers to reduce their staff by a third without losing work volume.
If by 2029, AI-based agents automate at least 20% of jobs in Ukraine (where about 7 million people are officially employed), 1.4 million Ukrainians will leave the labor market or switch to part-time employment.
“Not 50%, as enthusiasts predict, but 20%. Global data for some sectors already records a 34% increase in employee productivity thanks to AI — mathematically, this means that an employer can reduce a third of the staff and maintain the same amount of work,” Patsan noted.
Mykhailo Patsan calculated that this level of cuts would deal a devastating blow to state finances. Assuming the average salary increases to UAH 32,000 by 2029, the state's losses would amount to:
Personal income tax — about UAH 97 billion per year;
Military levy — 27 billion UAH;
SSC — 118 billion UAH.
In total, this is 242 billion hryvnias (approximately $5.8 billion) each year.
"The deficit of the Pension Fund of Ukraine without state subsidies is already about 240 billion hryvnias per year. That is, we are not talking about worsening the existing situation - we are talking about doubling it. Add another 242 billion holes here - and the question of "where to get money for pensions" becomes not theoretical, but quite concrete," the expert emphasizes.
He emphasizes that the line between "working" and "surviving" in Ukraine is already very thin: from January 2026, the minimum "hand-me-down" salary will be UAH 6,658, while the average pension is UAH 6,545.
The expert explains that money does not disappear from the economy, but simply moves from employees' payrolls to companies' corporate profits. For example, operating profit in companies with AI processes has already increased from 2.4% in 2022 to 7.7% in 2024.
To save the economy, Mykhailo Patsan suggests listening to the idea of the OpenAI company — introducing a new tax on automated labor. If an AI agent performs work instead of a human, the company must pay appropriate deductions for it.
At the same time, automation can also be a lifeline for Ukraine. In conditions of critical labor shortages due to the war and the need for rapid reconstruction, AI agents can fill the personnel gaps.
"But this is possible only if they are implemented consciously: with an understanding of the fiscal consequences, with retraining of people, with a new tax logic. Otherwise, we will get the worst-case scenario - increased productivity for several thousand companies and the collapse of the social system for millions," Patsan summed up, calling for building a new financial system today.
