A small asteroid could collide with Earth in 2032. What is the likelihood that this will happen?
An asteroid that has been moving away from Earth is on a path that could lead to a collision with our planet on December 22, 2032.
An asteroid that has been moving away from Earth is on a path that could lead to a collision with our planet on December 22, 2032.
Using the ATLAS survey telescope, researchers discovered a small asteroid, 2024 YR4, in Chile on December 27, 2024. Initially, scientists noted that the asteroid’s trajectory was moving away from Earth, writes Sciencealert.
Astronomers have been closely watching 2024 YR4 for over a month. It was discovered just days after a relatively close approach to our planet, and is now receding into the dark depths of the solar system.
However, by extrapolating the asteroid’s motion forward in time, scientists have determined its orbit around the Sun. Observations made over the past month have allowed astronomers to extrapolate the asteroid’s motion forward in time, determining its orbit around the Sun. As a result, it has been revealed that on December 22, 2032, it will pass very close to Earth, and may even collide with it with a probability of 1 in 77.
With each new observation, astronomers learn more about the asteroid’s motion. Currently, the best models of the asteroid’s motion have an uncertainty of about 100,000 km about its position at the moment it will be closest to Earth. With a diameter of about 12,000 km, our planet falls into the uncertainty zone.
Scientists will be able to observe the object until April, after which it will be lost even by the world’s largest telescopes. Although, for peace of mind, it can be said that the asteroid will come close to Earth again in December 2028, flying about 8 million km from our planet. Then astronomers will be able to analyze its size and shape again to predict where the asteroid will be in 2032.
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