"Ukraine will be competitive where we need not "cheap hands", but teams that know how to think and bring decisions to fruition." IT forecast for 2026 from the heads of leading IT companies

«Models of cooperation with clients will gradually change»

Our forecast for 2026 depends on two key scenarios.

Baseline scenario: continuation of the war. In this case, the main task of the industry will be to maintain its position on the plateau of stability that we reached in 2025.

Positive scenario: ceasefire and peace. This will undoubtedly have a positive impact on market dynamics. We can expect a gradual recovery and industry growth of 3-5%. However, the long-term impact of this scenario will depend heavily on the specific conditions of peace, so it is too early to make more detailed forecasts.

There will also be a gradual change in customer collaboration models. We expect a further increase in the share of projects where customers pay not for engineers' time, but for a specific result (outcome-based models). These are riskier, but at the same time more interesting and complex projects that require strong leadership and business-goal orientation from teams.

What to fear and what to hope for? The main fear is, of course, the continuation of the war and the deepening demographic crisis, which is a critical threat to an industry built on people. The main hope is our talents and investments in their development. We will continue to expand partnerships with universities and educational institutions to ensure the influx of new specialists into the industry under any conditions.

«We can talk about the growth of the Ukrainian IT market within 5% in 2026»

Waiting for peace creates a feeling that the worst is behind us, but the reality remains different. The war has been going on for almost four years and continues to require a high level of concentration on key operational issues: attracting new projects to Ukraine, maintaining team productivity, and ensuring a stable infrastructure. Therefore, despite believing in positive scenarios, we continue to work with current risks and their mitigation.

An additional factor of uncertainty remains the complex geopolitical situation in the world. At the same time, global markets and customers are actively transforming under the influence of artificial intelligence, and the demand for relevant technological solutions will grow. According to Gartner estimates, global spending on AI reached $1.5 trillion in 2025 and could grow by another 36% and reach $2 trillion by 2026.

Even under current conditions, in my opinion, we can talk about the growth of the Ukrainian IT market within 5% in 2026. However, the impact of the war will remain a key factor in the success of the industry.

«The industry faces challenges that will be defining in the coming years. The first is a shortage of expertise.»

Ukrainian IT in 2026, in my opinion, will move towards even greater specialization, technological maturity and global integration. Ukraine is traditionally strong in engineering school, rapid adaptation and entrepreneurial approach, so we naturally occupy a niche in creating complex technological products. Especially in Web3 today, there is a noticeable transition from short-term hype trends to building long-term infrastructure solutions: next-generation blockchain platforms, digital identity systems, institutional Web3 solutions, as well as products at the intersection of AI and decentralized technologies. Ukrainian teams are already working in these areas and are key players in the global Web3 chain.

Ukrainian teams are already included in international Super Recognized ratings, creating products that really push the Web3 industry forward. A critical mass of teams has formed in Ukraine that are able not only to participate in the market, but also to rethink Web3 architecture, influence security standards, scalability, and user experience, and this is already recognized by a global audience.

At the same time, the industry faces challenges that will be defining in the coming years. The first is a shortage of expertise, as Web3 and AI are changing faster than educational programs or internal market competencies are being updated.

The second challenge is global market volatility, which affects investment cycles, product strategies, and demand structures in both outsourcing and product development.

Despite this, I see moderate and stable growth in the industry. There are two realistic scenarios.

Optimistic — when Web3 and AI become the engines of development, attracting investments in Ukrainian R&D centers and forming new product ecosystems.

The basic one is when the market develops evolutionary: the share of product development increases, competition for talent intensifies, and companies deepen technological expertise. Both scenarios are positive, because they show that Ukrainian IT in 2026 has all the prerequisites to remain an important component of the global technological ecosystem.

We are also now effectively on the threshold of a new industrial revolution. AI has advanced to the point where robots can perform an increasingly wide range of tasks, whether they are software robots or hardware systems. However, creating these robots by humans is still extremely expensive. We are at a point where the main battle of the AI ​​industry is: who will be the first to create robots that can cheaply and massively produce other robots. This could be the next «explosive» breakthrough that will change the economy in the same way that the steam engine or electrification once changed it.

Also, Web3 is rapidly being adopted by institutional players, businesses, and retail users today. We are moving from experiments to mass adoption, which has the potential to change the unit economics of the global economy — from enterprises to government systems.

The main reasons for this shift:

• A revolution in payments. Stablecoins and a new settlement architecture make payments fast, transparent, and ultra-cheap.
• A revolution in digital identity. ZK technologies allow you to create private, secure, and verified identities without sharing personal data.
• A revolution in data storage. Data becomes verified-by-default, radically reducing fraud and changing the approach to trust.

It’s no wonder I recently read an opinion that perfectly describes the moment: in a year or two, the phrase «cross-border payment» will sound as archaic as «cross-border email» does now. Thanks to Web3, global transactions will become as simple and instant as sending a message.

«Integrating artificial intelligence will not become an advantage, but a basic necessity»

In 2026, companies will have to simultaneously support business growth and maintain team resilience. In many cases, this will mean solutions that do not have an immediate effect, but help preserve people, products and internal stability. Supporting people while remaining resilient as a business — this balance, I believe, will be key in 2026, and not just for the IT industry.

It has always been difficult, and in times of war and geopolitical instability, it has been even more selective. At the same time, the experience of recent years shows that investments in companies with Ukrainian roots are possible if the business demonstrates resilience, a clear growth model, and a strong team.

The integration of artificial intelligence will become not an advantage, but a basic necessity. Companies will implement AI at all levels — from products to internal processes — to increase efficiency and speed of decision-making. At the same time, AI will remain a challenge: competition for specialists, the need for new skills and the responsible use of technology will require constant adaptation.

Competition for talent remains a key risk. Some professionals will continue to seek opportunities abroad, so developing teams, investing in training, and creating an environment where professionals can thrive regardless of location will be critical for Ukrainian companies.

«The highest value will be given to professionals who combine deep technical expertise with domain understanding and consulting thinking»

I can assume that 2026 will retain cautious optimism for Ukrainian IT. The industry will no longer grow «by inertia»: the market is becoming more selective and demanding, so companies that are able to adapt quickly without losing consistency and build trust with customers through stable results and long-term partnerships will have an advantage. In Ukrainian realities, the key focus remains operational stability and team support — everything that was previously perceived as risk management is increasingly becoming a part of everyday work.

That is why specialists who combine deep technical expertise with domain understanding and consulting thinking will have the highest value: they are able not only to perform tasks, but also to help form the right decisions and be responsible for the result.

Ukrainian IT will remain in demand on the global market — finding comparable expertise is still difficult. At the same time, clients are increasingly paying attention to operational sustainability, so in 2026 they will more often choose cooperation models with distributed teams and flexible geography.

«Ukraine will continue to be competitive where we need not „cheap hands“, but teams that know how to think and bring decisions to fruition»

I expect that we will see the «rapid growth at any cost» approach less and less often. Instead, there will be even more attention to sustainability, focus, and maturity. The Ukrainian tech industry has already learned to work in conditions of uncertainty and war. Therefore, the advantage will be on the side of those who maintain quality, build long-term relationships with customers, and have already moved from «selling hours» to «creating value.» In particular, through products, platform solutions, and niche expertise.

Therefore, next year we will see competition from employers for strong engineers, a focus on cybersecurity, data/AI engineering, integration, legacy modernization, and process efficiency. Ukraine will continue to be competitive where it is not «cheap hands» that are needed, but teams that know how to think and bring solutions to fruition. It is obvious that DefTech/MilTech will be one of the main drivers in the industry. The role of Ukrainian product companies and «hybrid» models, where businesses will use their service expertise to create added value, will also continue to grow.

Add to this the competition for talent with global teams, the not always justified hype around the use of AI, as well as the pressure on marginality in the service segment. Another challenge is the devaluation of the engineering discipline due to the stereotype that «everything can be generated». In the short term, this may speed up development, but in the long term it hurts quality and trust.

In the baseline scenario, I would expect a cautious recovery in demand, an increase in contracts with Ukrainian businesses to improve efficiency and modernize IT solutions, as well as further strengthening of the product direction. In the optimistic scenario, a significant improvement in the investment climate, an increase in development budgets in Ukraine, as well as rapid growth of Ukrainian products and R&D in Ukraine.

«The National Revenue Strategy contains provisions that are currently not beneficial for the Ukrainian IT business»

In 2026, the outsourcing segment of Ukrainian IT will face even more difficulties. Systemic problems caused by the war have not disappeared and, unfortunately, are unlikely to be fully resolved in the near future.

At the same time, product companies have the potential for further growth, provided there are no significant or unforeseen innovations from the state. Unlike outsourcing, they are less dependent on external factors, such as customer policies or changes in the global economy, and can directly influence the product, marketing, and focus on the end consumer.

Any deterioration in economic conditions—increasing tax burdens or complicating booking mechanisms—could have a negative impact on the industry.

Despite this, I am counting on a positive scenario in which the state and business will work together to solve problems, rather than in opposite directions.

Ukrainian IT in 2026 will be the same as always — dynamic, inventive, and creative, despite difficult and unpredictable conditions.

My forecast is that there will be more interaction with the state. There will be even less outflow of specialists from companies. There will be no more vacancies in product companies, but in all projects related to miltech there will be many times more opportunities than in 2025. The most difficult position to hire in 2026, I think, will be engineering specialists working at the interface of online and physical technologies. This position is also a good opportunity to enter the field.

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