Global oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022. Brent (the global benchmark) rose to around $107–108 per barrel, US WTI to around $106 per barrel.
Global oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022. Brent (the global benchmark) rose to around $107–108 per barrel, US WTI to around $106 per barrel.
This came after a sharp rise of around 16–25% in just a few days of trading.
The last time prices were at this level was in 2022 after a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The sharp increase in prices is associated with the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, in particular with the US and Israeli strikes on facilities in Iran. Currently, we have a risk of oil supply disruptions, since about 20% of world oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, oil facilities and storage facilities are under attack, and some Gulf states have already reduced production due to risks and problems with exports.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump commented on the price jump, saying it was an acceptable price to pay for security.
«Short-term oil prices… are a small price to pay for security and peace in the world,» he wrote. The US president also said that prices could fall quickly once the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated.
Analysts warn that prices could go much higher. Some forecasts say about $110–120 per barrel in the near future. In the event of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the price could rise even more.
In Ukraine, fuel prices have been rising for a week. According to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Company, in Germany and the Netherlands, the price increased by 16 UAH/l (0.31 euros) in a week. «The Netherlands has the most powerful oil hub in Europe and the world. Germany owns ports and oil refineries,» he said.
In Poland, diesel fuel has become more expensive by PLN 1.19. This is almost UAH 15/l. «Diesel fuel has disappeared from some gas stations. Also ports, two powerful refineries,» adds Kuyun. Ukraine, which, according to him, no longer has any refineries, ports, or oil depots, has recorded a price increase of UAH 6/l in a week… «And you say that the reserves and the market are not working. We don’t know our luck!», the expert ironically says.
According to an analyst at a consulting company «Oil Market» Oleksandr Sirenko, Floating excise tax can save the Ukrainian fuel market from a deep crisis. «It works simply: we fix prices, oil is growing (take the affordable ICE exchange) — we reduce the excise tax by the corresponding percentage, oil is falling — we restore the excise tax. And prices at gas stations are stable. Time-tested,» he says. According to him, now the networks are holding out to the last to earn not 10 UAH, but 15 UAH per liter.
«These 15 hryvnias, in particular, include logistics across the country, electricity, salaries, and their earnings. Therefore, our price should go up to 85 hryvnias for diesel and 80 hryvnias for gasoline,» says Dmytro Lyoushkin, founder of the Prime group of companies and fuel expert.
