After the end of the war, Ukraine is expected to experience a large wave of emigration of the economically active creative class, which will be a major blow to the economy.
After the end of the war, Ukraine is expected to experience a large wave of emigration of the economically active creative class, which will be a major blow to the economy.
«According to our calculations, in an optimistic scenario, 19-20 thousand representatives of our industry will leave Ukraine. This is 8% of the entire human capital of the Ukrainian IT industry. And the worst thing is that the dynamics in this calculation are not on our side — this percentage has been growing for the last two years. Plus one percent does not look scary, but these are several thousand highly qualified specialists. In the worst case, this figure could reach 74-75 thousand. This is a third of the industry,» said Stepan Veselovsky, CEO of the Lviv IT cluster, in an interview with NV.ua.
According to him, you need to look a few steps ahead in order to prepare the environment.
«We have created and support 19 educational programs at various universities, where 4.5 thousand bachelors study. There we see a decrease in the number of boys and an increase in the number of girls. In general, the percentage of women in the industry is increasing,» Veselovsky explained.
The CEO of the Lviv IT cluster added that after the war, demand for human capital will recover and Ukraine will experience a demographic hole.
«But it’s difficult to predict now. It’s likely that the shortage of people in the industry will be compensated for by using traditionally high remuneration compared to other industries. But for Ukraine, globally, it’s like transferring money from one pocket to another. We’ll have to import human capital,» he believes.
Previously, dev.ua provided forecasts from the top companies EPAM, Ciklum, Capgemini Engineering, ZONE3000, and Genesis regarding what 2025 will be like for Ukrainian IT.
According to Stepan Mytish, head of the Ukrainian office of EPAM, the forecasts for the development of Ukrainian IT in 2025 will largely be determined by the course of hostilities. If the active phase of the war continues, business conditions will remain difficult, and the outflow of talent abroad will continue.
