American scientists are modeling scenarios for neutralizing asteroid 2024 YR4, which is currently thought to pose a greater threat to the Moon than the Earth. The options range from fragmentation by a «kinetic impact» to detonating a nuclear charge near the target if other methods fail to safely deflect its trajectory.
American scientists are modeling scenarios for neutralizing asteroid 2024 YR4, which is currently thought to pose a greater threat to the Moon than the Earth. The options range from fragmentation by a «kinetic impact» to detonating a nuclear charge near the target if other methods fail to safely deflect its trajectory.
According to Interesting Engineering, the initial assessment (December 2024 — January 2025) gave a 3,1% probability of impacting the Earth, but after additional observations the risk was reduced to 0,28%; the main threat was the possibility of a collision with the Moon in 2032. The object is approximately 55 m in diameter; an impact with the Moon will raise a cloud of regolith and small debris, which will temporarily increase the flow of micrometeoroids near the Earth — according to estimates, up to 1000× the background. This will increase the risks for satellites, orbital stations and crews.
Researchers warn: a classic «soft» deflection could be dangerous, because due to the uncertainty of the mass and structure of 2024 YR4, a false impulse could, on the contrary, reduce the distance of the approach to Earth. Therefore, they propose a two-stage approach: first, a mission a la DART, but with the aim of fragmentation, and in case of failure, preparation of a nuclear intervention with an explosion near the body. This option is theoretical and has never been tested in space, but is considered effective for small and medium-sized objects in a time crunch.
The time window is narrow: to make it to the 2032 flyby, the spacecraft would have to launch sometime around 2029–2031. At the same time, models show that there is a ≈96% chance that 2024 YR4 will pass by the Moon without a collision; despite this, the authors call for early development of design and production schedules for operational planetary defense missions.
NASA has a successful precedent for impacting small bodies, namely the DART mission (2022), which changed the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos moon with a kinetic impact. But 2024 YR4 is a more complex case: less time to observe, more unknowns about the internal structure and mechanical strength. That is why «hard» scenarios (fragmentation/detonation) are considered not as the first choice, but as a backup tool in case the «soft» deflection does not guarantee safety
Previously, dev.ua wrote about how NASA plans to launch the Artemis II mission in February 2026: four astronauts will make an approximately 10-day flight around the Moon without landing, and this will be the first such flight since Apollo 17.
