The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has been at the center of a scandal over a change to its map of the war in Ukraine, which became the basis for betting on the Polymarket platform. The incident, which occurred in November, forced ISW to admit to interference that could have affected the financial results of betting on the market.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has been at the center of a scandal over a change to its map of the war in Ukraine, which became the basis for betting on the Polymarket platform. The incident, which occurred in November, forced ISW to admit to interference that could have affected the financial results of betting on the market.
According to Responsible Statecraft, on November 15, 2025, there were active bets on Polymarket on whether Russia would capture Mirnograd by the end of the day. For many, this event seemed unlikely, but if the bet was won, it could bring a profit of up to 33,000%. However, before the market closed, information appeared on the ISW map indicating that Russia had already captured a key part of the city. This occurred without corresponding confirmation from other sources. Subsequently, after the payouts on the platform, this change disappeared.
ISW issued an official statement on November 17, saying that the changes were made without management permission. «This was an unauthorized edit that was removed before the start of the working day on November 16,» the Institute noted.
The same day, the name of one of the employees who worked on the map was removed from the site, and sources said he had been fired. ISW would not comment on whether an internal investigation was underway or why the employee was fired.
ISW’s policy on the use of its cards in the context of gambling markets has been clearly stated: the institute categorically does not approve of the use of its cards for betting and has not given permission for this. At the same time, Polymarket and similar platforms have once again found themselves in the spotlight, as betting on military events is gaining popularity, but poses risks for manipulation by individuals with access to confidential information.
The ISW incident highlights the ethical and legal issues that can arise in unregulated prediction markets. In a world where prediction is becoming not only exciting but also a profitable business, the potential for manipulation is increasing. At the same time, the lack of regulation in such areas leaves those who might take advantage of their position unaccountable.
It is unclear whether there have been other similar instances of ISW card manipulation, but some Polymarket players point to other moments that seem suspicious. For example, the changing of cards regarding Russia’s seizure of the railway in Kupyansk on October 29, which preceded payouts on the platform.
This case was a serious blow to the reputation of ISW, which has not yet commented on whether it is part of a larger problem with the use of cards for predictions and betting.
Previously, dev.ua wrote about how the developers of the PolyGlobe map, which visualizes bets on Polymarket with geolocation, unauthorizedly used the API of the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState. In this way, they wanted to improve the visualization of bets on the capture of Ukrainian cities by the Russians.
