Artificial intelligence can become not only a tool of war, but also a tool of peace. Former Harvard University professor Arvid Bell introduced the North Star system, which uses behavioral models of world leaders to predict the consequences of wars, sanctions, and political decisions.
Artificial intelligence can become not only a tool of war, but also a tool of peace. Former Harvard University professor Arvid Bell introduced the North Star system, which uses behavioral models of world leaders to predict the consequences of wars, sanctions, and political decisions.
As reported by Interesting Engineering, presenting his project at the AI+ Expo conference in Washington, Bell explained that the system creates digital «doppelgangers» of political figures and models their reactions in crisis situations. For example, North Star predicted a 60% probability of escalation from Russia after the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine in 2022.
During the demonstration, North Star simulated a hypothetical report from the Russian SVR intelligence agency that called for «precision strikes on enemy troop concentrations and infrastructure.» This was a scenario that was later partially confirmed in reality.
The system was developed in collaboration with Nobel laureate physicist Ferenc Dalnoky-Vérész. The development is part of the Anadyr Horizon startup, which also offers North Star to corporate clients. For example, the system can be used to model the consequences of riots or geopolitical instability for businesses.
Investors see this technological solution as having the potential to create a new industry, peace tech. One of them, B Ventures founder Brian Abrams, compares it to climate technology: «10 years ago, almost no one had heard of climate tech. Now, more than $50 billion is invested in this industry annually.»
The term peace tech is gradually becoming popular among startups, investors, and policy analysts. It refers to digital tools that help prevent or better respond to conflicts. This includes both analytical AI models and early warning systems. North Star is one of the first notable projects in this direction, trying to combine the analytical power of AI with diplomatic forecasting.
Despite the ambition, experts warn: excessive trust in AI predictions, especially in the field of international politics, can have unpredictable consequences.
As a reminder, we also wrote about how conspiracy theorists are using artificial intelligence chatbots to engage other users on social media. There are already special bots that are trained in conspiracy disinformation.
